ann out: company updates, page-13

This shows how we have no idea at all at what Greece means if it formally defaults.

We have a possible range somewhere in between 2.68 billion but probably much higher (easily manageable) and 32 trillion but probably much lower (catastrophe).

In other words, most of us have no idea at all!
This is why its often best to just watch the way markets are behaving rather than thinking we know what is going on and deciding what markets should do based on what we "know".
This is what makes charts of liquid markets so useful.
The most obvious real bull markets left (inflation adjusted) is gold and gold stocks and bonds but bonds are now yielding so low that they would have to be very risky. Silver too but with much more volatility. Copper is also still in a long term bull. US markets look good since the 2009 lows, but when adjusted for the US dollar, not so good.

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article30604.htm

Some observers question whether a Greek default would be that bad. According to a comment on Forbes on October 10, 2011:

[T]he gross notional value of Greek CDS contracts as of last week was €54.34 billion, according to the latest report from data repository Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC). DTCC is able to undertake internal netting analysis due to having data on essentially all of the CDS market. And it reported that the net losses would be an order of magnitude lower, with the maximum amount of funds that would move from one bank to another in connection with the settlement of CDS claims in a default being just €2.68 billion, total. If DTCC’s analysis is correct, the CDS market for Greek debt would not much magnify the consequences of a Greek default—unless it stimulated contagion that affected other European countries.

It is the “contagion,” however, that seems to be the concern. Players who have hedged their bets by betting both ways cannot collect on their winning bets; and that means they cannot afford to pay their losing bets, causing other players to also default on their bets. The dominos go down in a cascade of cross-defaults that infects the whole banking industry and jeopardizes the global pyramid scheme. The potential for this sort of nuclear reaction was what prompted billionaire investor Warren Buffett to call derivatives “weapons of financial mass destruction.” It is also why the banking system cannot let a major derivatives player—such as Bear Stearns or Lehman Brothers—go down. What is in jeopardy is the derivatives scheme itself. According to an article in The Wall Street Journal on January 20th:

Hanging in the balance is the reputation of CDS as an instrument for hedgers and speculators—a $32.4 trillion market as of June last year; the value that may be assigned to sovereign debt, and $2.9 trillion of sovereign CDS, if the protection isn't seen as reliable in eliciting payouts; as well as the impact a messy Greek default could have on the global banking system.