Well hello all, this has to be quick as I am swamped with work that needs to get done here (but cant resist adding my 2c)
I think the most interesting thing about this release is the timing. Why release this a couple of days before the pres? Its either getting the bad news out of the way for a good result OR softening us up for the inevitable news.
Either way I am not to unhappy with the 7.9% and as people have alluded to 7.9% doesnt mean allot on its own.
The real questions that it makes me ask myself are:
What is the weighted average cap rate now?
What are the individual assets looking like?
What is the occupancy?
What has the retention rate been?
What are delinquencies looking like? (would be a good one to ask at the pres if someone is going...)
Is there a particular sector of the holdings that have been hit harder (industrial or more likely big box retail/bulky goods?)
Its only these questions that will give the 7.9% drop some perspective. On its own it could be any number of factors that have caused the drop.
As others have said other pertinent questions that come to mind are:
What is the current LTV?
Current ISCR? DSCR?
What are the new debt terms?
These are a limited few.
From memory (and please correct me if I am wrong here) we are carrying VCS, Development and Funds Management at 0's or close to. Can someone confirm this is correct.
If this is right then I think VPG has a great platform for increasing NTA.
The asset holdings should be a solid platform for recurring income. Developmetn (ie Pentridge) could add some spice to the stable asset holding income.
Further, improvements in the economy and investor appetite may allow some returns on VCS positions that have been written off.
FM should keep plugging away also.
All of these things should provide some good earnings in the short and medium term (coupled with the significant downsizing that took place. All be it I wouldnt be surprised to see VPG back on the hiring trail in Aus in the short term).
DUKE and FM values should provide a boost to NTA in the medium term.
Also continued uncertainty in the UK and EU property markets may lead to further opportunities in growing the FM arm in the UK.
Biggest thing with VPG is that they will not be in any position to take advantage of M&A if there are opportunities in the short term cycle.
All above is probably incoherent as I am trying to do it so quickly, and if so I apologise.
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