ann out, page-46

I have had some spare time today to re-analyse and evaluate the stock i thought i would share to encourage some light hearted and balanced discussion, my thoughts below:


Considering how the sp has held up i find a strong sp movement down unlikely. On the other-hand it is important to note a very strong market day today that may have distorted the markets consent. The fact that the raising was over subscribed does give me confidence. I have seen SPs get smashed or sky rocket after CRs, it is difficult to make a fully informed educated judgment without news on Paloma.


Once the Paloma announcement is out, providing it is a good one, the SP should perform. Though, if it isn't impressive enough to merit the cr the sp will suffer, at least in the short term. No denying that. At least market conditions are strong enough to reduce the possibility of a big downward hit on news flow not meeting expectations. I would be waiting until we get an announcement before taking up the rights offer. The offer isn't open for another week i think, check the date.


I am changing my sentiment to a hold rather than light buy. I was expecting an announcement today. Without this news flow and with a cr just performed i believe we need more certainty here. I believe that we should of been given some news. I'm not in a position to question management, i think they have been excellent so far. But considering the markets perception of Vietnam as the 'x-factor' for this stock, i think we do need good news flow very soon on Paloma.


Ken's interview was also comforting of Paloma's potential value to the company. He did say that Paloma may at least double the size of the company. My concern here is that diluting current holders takes value away. As we do not know the scale of Paloma in terms of 'set in stone' reserves and commercial rates, this is an element of uncertainty.


Stapleman, while i love this story and fundamentals, the stock better bloody perform this next year. I am too young and impatient to keep waiting. I can see a real opportunity to shift money off shore to the DOW for currency exposure and stock performance. But at the moment i don't see the need to go overseas when i see this opportunity in front of me.

I'm hoping Paloma will be a booster and Vietnam the rocket. Either way bring on some news!


Just my two cents worth, discussion welcomed, remember there are two sides to every coin. Balanced discussion will also keep the trolls away :)