ann out, page-13

abobo, although u were replying to valkyrie, i will add to it.

imo, this time it is very different to previous outbreaks. as the sp is not just based on the outbreak. there are quite a few more interesting developments:

1. **most important** point is the continued awareness and coverage by media of NOT just swine flu, BUT "tamiflus resistance & side effects". please look at

http://www.theage.com.au/national/tamiflu-linked-to-suicides-20090530-br4c.html

this is very important, as it informs both doctors and governments of tamiflus uselessness/dangers, and so they start using relenza as the only flu medication. so the orders should keep increasing. what do you think aussie doctors would prescribe after this ??, japan is already using relenza and the others should follow suit with such awareness.


2. GSK has ramped up production (which i don't remember them doing last time), as i think they know the difference now, and there are suggestions that they are even increasing on these numbers.

3. they have too many products nearing maturity, but the best is LANI, which is probably the only flu medication left, and the best thing is that its very convenient to use. Now the point against relenza was that it is hard to use over tamiflu (with tamiflus resistance now, ppl do not have an option anyway). now compare a medicine that just needs be taken once a week! how easy is that ! do you think daily pills can compete against that ?

4. i read many complaints about management. but with current increase in awareness and continued increase in orders, do you think such comments would continue to be taken seriously by holders ?

5. LANI's results are due at the most perfect time. If LANI is successful, it should almost instantly be known to the world, with the media coverage, because if lani is due at junes end, flu would be nearing its peak then in USA i think.

6. there can be some outflux at the end of the outbreak, but australia has about, not too sure, atleast 2 more months of flu, where do you expect the SP to be by that time ? & even if we see a correction then, which i doubt to be anything large if LANI is a winner.

7. by the current earnings per share, share price should be on the 1.55+ price mark from just current known royalties. we are at 1.41, and were at 1.24 when i last posted the fundament analysis a week ago. plus there is chartist's buy and also speculative buy. so everything pretty much is lining up for biota. i do wonder if CSL have their eyes on biota, not based on relenza but LANI.

but still, to all readers, i maybe totally wrong. please do the research and conduct due diligence before any financial transaction. above is not financial advice and is just an anecdotal tale.