Look at the other ASX announcement ~max 42m securities under the SPP ~ $60m or so. They mentioned if 50% of shareholders take up $15k (average take up todate) they won't oversubscribe.
Agree if share price hadn't gone up since 31 July they would struggle to fill, but given the ~8% discount to SP, effectively that is your discount.
Yes you'd expect the SP to decrease by the div amount on ex-date.
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