Discount rate is a big issue. It's a significant driver of value of ore in cutoff grade theory and subsequently the Lerchs Grossman (pits)/ILP (underground) optimisations on which this thing should have designed - I hope that's the case. If arbitrary designs around the block model have been used, there's a big problem. And that goes for any mine, from a prospecting sh!tshow to something the size of OT.
The resultant schedule, to my eye, repeats the behaviour of CITIC at Cape Preston - mine and stockpile ore while building the mill, thereby doubling capital exposure and risk against a period of no revenue. Not to mention the potentially deleterious effects on recovery of having all that sulphide sitting around oxidising for nine months or whatever before its fed into the mill.
Then there's the schedule itself, which is as lumpy as hell, irrespective of any planned shutdowns (yes, folks, ya gots to replace those bearings every two to three years, not to mention biannual replacement of the liners). Try maintaining peak negative $50M working capital with that schedule against a mining contractor with a good lawyer. The images show skinny pits and this thing's using a minimum mining width of 20m and there's no mention of the strip ratio, which must be horrendous. Productivity's related to real estate and ya needs about 1 productive Ha on the pit floor at any time, which isn't conducive to a 20m minimum width or the implied single lane ramp.
Which brings me to geotech, which'd want to be good, given the proximity of the mill to a potentially hostile competitor to the south. Piggy's gonna want to evacuate his plant every time there's a shot and he'll invoice FML for his full cost.
Nup. Don't like it.
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