It is important to note that ~ 67,000 Mt of new natural flake graphite supply is slated to enter the market by ~ June / July 2024. New suppliers are Walkabout Creek Resources (~ 40,000 Mt), South Star Mining (~ 5,000 Mt) and NextSource (~ 17,000 Mt / after many months of plant calibration); all which will affect market pricing depending on the mesh size distribution of each flake graphite signature. Since demand for natural flake CSPG is limited entirely in China and the vast majority of battery OEM's use primary synesthetic graphite anode products including VW, Fisker, BMW, Mercedes Benz, etc., as each new natural flake graphite mine supply comes online without supporting market demand (ignoring the ongoing hype pontificated by BM) will continue to put downward pressure on pricing, especially medium and fine grades making it extremely difficult for any new operation to achieve sustainable acceptable profitability or long term viability. A prime example is Syrah who entered the graphite market with the quantity (~300,000 Mt new supply of fines) over quality strategy causing a crash in graphite fines pricing and forcing Syrah into care and maintenance for more than a year. A strategy of not understanding the graphite market and there is fierce competition that will not let a new supplier to take established market share.
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