DRO 7.39% $1.09 droneshield limited

Don't worry about the wider macro-led movements if your time...

  1. 525 Posts.
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    Don't worry about the wider macro-led movements if your time horizon is 5-10y+

    DROs revenue is primarily military spend which doesn't tend to change regardless of incoming our outgoing tides (links below). When a fearful catalyst triggers, like the panic on banks last night, it generally follows money runs out every door. As the dust settles though, people will come back inside selectively.

    Personally i'm looking to increase my cash holdings and have reduced exposure to only a few stocks while I complete DD on other opportunities. As tempting as it has been to take some profits on DRO in this 35-42c range recently, i've opted to double down due to my increased conviction in our near-term (6month) prospects. As my tagline reads - i'm an amateur so please take my ideas with a grain of salt.

    My thinking as follows:

    Pros:
    • We have no debt and just completed a very successful capital raise so we won't be short of cash anytime soon
    • Most of our customers are governments (military spend is rarely negatively impacted by inflation/recession)
    • Strong sales growth YoY for 3 consecutive years
    • Close to break-even last year (~$900k)
    • Strong momentum with landmark sales within last 3-4months
    • Endorsement from US DOD
    • Growing revenue streams across multiple product lines and use cases including ARR potential with SaaS.

    Cons:
    • Volatile and unpredictable track record on sales.
    • History of management over-promising on health of pipeline
    • Our "transformative" year seems to have crept from 2022 into 2023 too. We're also at an "inflection point" that appears more like a rounded edge than any point i've seen
    • Shareprice follows a pattern if quick leaps ahead followed by slowly losing ground
    • Highly reliant on material sale news for SP to move up OR hype an momentum (guessing day traders contribute a bit on the latter)

    Defense Stocks Are More Than a Recession Haven - BloombergWorld military spending soars in spite of recession - BBC News
    A Recession Won't Stop America's Reckless Military Spending | The National Interest
    Last edited by specvestor: 10/03/23
 
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$1.09
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