I'm going out there on a limb right now, but I think today could...

I'm going out there on a limb right now, but I think today could be a good buying day.
Natural gas in US is up 60% in the last month, which dictates LNG prices. LNG prices dictate UK prices ultimately.
The more bullish tone to UK O&G stocks in the last week or two is probably due to the abating of selling on the back of maximum negativity (as a result of Labour policies), and as medium term smart money starts to position for a rebound in the sector.
Much has been said recently about how you can no longer put a cigarette paper between the policies of the Labour and Tory parties. Both seem intent on trying to provide comfort to voters that they have a plan and neither plan involves radical change. I suspect, in part, that higher interest rates have rendered most of Labour's more radical plans as unfundable, as cited by the OBR, who are becoming increasingly insistent on costing any radical spending plans (hence the abandonment of labour's green flagship in Feb).

So, in a nutshell, the more fearful shareholders have largely moved on as the counter cyclical investors have quietly been accumulating. Eventually, the supply demand ratio will favour the upside. Why do I think today might be the time to buy? Well, for 1) the bid/offer looks better, 2) the chart is lining up for a break to the upside 3) we are still due some news on optionality with the new leases 4) I suspect management would likely buy but are in black out at the moment (this is a calculated guess at the moment) 5)Natural gas prices look like they are firming and will get stronger in the next few months as we enter the European restocking stage and lastly 6) I suspect that the geopolitical climate might still have a surprise in store (eg Russia could turn the taps off to create some pain for the west ahead of elections).

GLTOAH