Just had an actual read of the announcement (not just the heading) and i'm revising my DFS NPV estimate from 350m up closer to 400m.
Regarding why the price is suppressed - this company still has risk attached to it, although significantly less than this time last year.
The main constraints I see are:
1) NT Government approvals / EIS - The NT Government is notorious in this space and CXO have ambitious time frames.
2) Securing the remaining funding - If an off-take partner doesn't pony up, we are looking for alternate funding mechanisms (BFS), which will almost certainly involve significant dilution.
3) LOM - Based on current reserves, this is a short life mining operation. Having said that, we're likely still going to have an NPV between 350 and 450, which puts us way way way undervalued (assuming points 1 and 2 get resolved). I don't see #3 as a major constraint though, I'm quietly confident we will find more Li20, maybe not at the high grade of Grants/BP33, but enough to extend the life and make further use of the infrastructure built for Grants/BP33.
Good luck all and just remember that eventually when we have cash in the bank on the back of sales, the share price will pretty much be forced to go up with it. It's all just a waiting game. Enjoy the accumulation phase and think long term.
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