Vesp, i'm here to learn. When OZL launched the bid i had to look into AVB, imo one has to watch what Directors get up to and try and understand why they are doing it, i don't just sit back and think Directors know what they are doing. So my evaluation was and is that AVB seems to have some future potential and the Bid was and is fairly priced so i thought lets see what these AVB holders think on HC and it's turned out they seem to think its not fair and they've been sold down the river.
Some like Kalenn and his three mates even had enough spine to go to the AFR and stick up for themselves and their view which believe it or not i like and respect, however their opinion differed from mine and me knowing i'm not always right i thought i would post my opinions, question their stance and see what, if any constructive replies i got back that would change my opinion, if i just posted things which agreed with them and others on here i wouldn't learn much, one has to question things to learn imo.
As it turns out i've mainly been attacked rather than receiving constructive debate on the differing views although Kalenn and a couple of others have given some reasonable replies at times. If i'm long or short on a trade i like to hear all opposing views, it may not seem like it but i always question my DD, if i thought another bid was possible i would buy AVB but as it stands i can't see it and therefore if i was an AVB holder i would sell but don't forget we all have our individual investment criteria so it may suit some to sell and it may not suit others.
As it happens i think LT AVB holders may be right to be upset with the Bid in some ways as AVB does seem to have potential and if it was not bid for, 5yrs down the track it may be possible that AVB SH would have got better than 17c but there are lots of currently unknown factors that could potentially inhibit that too imo. At a PDV outlook which is what i have to look at, i think most would agree 17c is not that bad, so depending on the angle of debate i think both sides have merit.
The main problem for LT AVB holders that don't want to sell is that OZL has bid and your lovely Directors have signed on the dotted line along with Appian, BR and about 10% of retailers (so far). This makes it a friendly Bid with an 80%+ chance of success (statistically) so if it fails it is like a rare event and the reasons for a failure ( If it fails ) will be something to learn from, the how, why and all the rest of it.
Hope this answers your interest in my posts.
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