BPAA,
My trip was not a junket. It was an arduous undertaking while I was actually in need of hospitalisation for a medical complaint. I was in planes for 5 days to have 3 days on the ground. I made the decision to go because of the value of the information I picked up. I didn't do it for myself alone. I have no doubt about the information I found out and shared.
The people that have responded to me privately stating their current intention with regards the take over have not pledged their shares nor did I ask them to. They are helping us all have an insight into the numbers as the process unfolds though.
You have very strong opinions about various 'conspiracies'. What I am endeavouring to do is separate the emotion out of any decision making process. If I lock myself into believing that 'it must have all gone down this way' I blind myself to possibilities. I want maximum financial return for myself. Maybe my thoughts and 'implied' knowledge will help others but that is for them to decide.
What I have done and continue to do is fight for maximum value for myself and other AVB share holders. Many of the things that have been done (by myself and a small band of fellow holders) in the past 10 weeks would surprise you. We were unable to talk about them but I assure you the feet were paddling furiously under the water. Most of those actions would have been pointless if talked about on social media.
Now that OZL have reached 50% I will tell you one thing that I could not say earlier for strategic reasons. There is no way that I wanted our current board to lead AVB forward post March 27th and the take over offer. There may be some individual talents on the board but as a group they announced on that day that they did not have what it takes to move us all forward. Maybe at some point their reasons will come out.
The next strategic step is working out again how to maximise our return from here. I suspect there will be an acceleration of folding into the offer. I will watch with interest to see how that unfolds. I will have to weigh up all the possibilities post takeover period but there is a time to go yet before I have to think about that too closely.
Will I make more money selling on market and moving on? I have a few ideas for where my money could go.
Will there be a second offer after 6 months? Will it be significantly higher? Will OZL share price move more or less proportionally?
Will OZL reach 90% and a cash payout following independent valuation? Will that valuation be significantly different to the current one? Even if so would I be better off in OZL or some other company?
There are a dozen other permutations, you get the picture I'm sure.
you said, "I read all your posts and I think I read between the lines pretty well and even I'm confused on your direction and actions."
I don't have a specific direction, at least not in the sense that I have a 'position' that is rigidly held. I have been working to maximise both info and possibilities. Each step required a set of actions but then waiting for the fork in the path. Initially, we fought behind the scenes to generate a competing offer. I have been unable to share all the results on here for a number of reasons but the main one was that sub 50% OZL were a valuable share holder but not in control of our company. We were fighting to seek better outcomes behind the scenes. Now OZL are beyond 50% and in control. The rules change. How much further they get will dictate choices. I have my assumptions about how far they will get but I'm waiting to find out what reality is.
I also take with a pinch of salt some of the things said on here. It's healthy. Some posters are obviously full of it. Some mean well but dont see the full picture. We can all see each other's agenda pretty clearly. After 6 plus years I would have thought most know mine.
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