Hi Kpax and NZTYour valuation estimate and commentary got my attention and for what its worth here is my 2 bobs worth.
Lets take your initial figures but apply a captured 60% market share as suggested by PTP which I believe is far more reasonable. Let’s also recognize that the incumbents stand to lose approx. $1.5 billion in revenue each year assuming they continue to sit on their hands and watch PAA take their market share. This is highly unlikely IMHO.
So if its $900 million gross revenue for 30% then its US$1.8 billion gross revenue for 60%. Now assuming MPL extends the life of the majority of MND patients this would be a conservative figure as the MND population on MPL would continue to grow (existing and new patients).
Based on a November 2023 report noting the gross margin of the top 15 BP ranged from 57% to 83% (https://www.statista.com/statistics/473429/top-global-pharmaceutical-companies-gross-margin-values/) let’s take a gross margin of 50% for PAA. Assuming a GP of 50% (rare disease with ODD) then that would give PAA a gross profit of $900 million per year.
Now “For pharmaceutical companies, the median gross profit margin was 76.5% (95% CI, 70.3%-82.7%), the median EBITDA margin was 29.4% (95% CI, 26.3%-32.5%), and the median net income margin was 13.8% (95% CI, 10.2%-17.4%)….3 Mar 2020.
Let's use 10% for a net profit and doing so PAA would generate an annual net profit of $90 million per year. If we then did an NPV (disc @ 10%) over 5 years with a terminal value of 3 years we would generate a value of $500 million for MND alone. This does not include any price escalation or increase in MPL treated population numbers.
Given the 2015 PAA valuation put a value on human and canine cancer at approx. $50 million then we could add that to the $500 million and add further value for covid and other potential diseases MPL may “cure”.
If this was done than a valuation in the order of $600 million to $1 billion is not without reason at this point in time.
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- PAA
- Ann: PAA completes Phase 1 and files for Orphan Drug Designation
Ann: PAA completes Phase 1 and files for Orphan Drug Designation, page-53
- There are more pages in this discussion • 378 more messages in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)
Featured News
Add PAA (ASX) to my watchlist
(20min delay)
|
|||||
Last
18.5¢ |
Change
-0.005(2.63%) |
Mkt cap ! $73.24M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
19.0¢ | 19.5¢ | 18.5¢ | $127.9K | 676.4K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 250 | 18.5¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
19.0¢ | 117214 | 3 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
12 | 236580 | 0.180 |
13 | 162652 | 0.175 |
13 | 409795 | 0.170 |
11 | 395699 | 0.165 |
6 | 134812 | 0.160 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.190 | 117214 | 3 |
0.195 | 196632 | 4 |
0.200 | 191849 | 6 |
0.205 | 72843 | 3 |
0.210 | 101999 | 3 |
Last trade - 13.32pm 15/05/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
|
|||||
Last
18.5¢ |
  |
Change
-0.005 ( 2.63 %) |
|||
Open | High | Low | Volume | ||
19.5¢ | 19.5¢ | 18.5¢ | 267609 | ||
Last updated 14.10pm 15/05/2024 ? |
Featured News
PAA (ASX) Chart |
The Watchlist
SS1
SUN SILVER LIMITED
Gerard O’Donovan, Executive Director
Gerard O’Donovan
Executive Director
SPONSORED BY The Market Online