Hi @LambingflatHave reviewed and updated Net Asset Values based...

First 10 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
lost

2,786 Posts.

1128

18/03/24

02:17

Post #: 72931844
Share

Originally posted by Lambingflat: ↑

Hi @lost,

I did my workings off the Dec 23 balance sheet, then made the following adjustments:-

1. Adjusted the difference between closing share price of GQG as at Dec 23 of $1.70, to the sale price of $2.16, then adjusted the net proceeds less tax on that portion of difference given the financials at Dec 23 already had a deferred tax liability noted.
2. Adjusted the small difference between book value and sale of the (3) boutiques, ~$3m
3. Applied the FMV uplift in the Feb presentation of $134m
4. Applied further deferred tax liabilities of $30.3m on the same page of the fair market value.

In regards to the net cash position assuming we repay the soul patts debt and pay the tax on the GQG sale, we could be looking at ~$270m.

If we proceed with a 10% on market share buyback, this will only cost us around ~$55m and leave plenty of cash remaining. Anything higher in terms of shares re-purchased will need shareholder approval. I guess nothing else will happen now until after the shareholder vote for the sale of the boutiques and management company.

The new operating structure, will add roughly $0.10 a share to earnings going forward and hopefully the stock can re-rate closer to the NTA. Surely some arb funds will start accumulating at these prices???

Expand

Hi @Lambingflat

Have reviewed and updated Net Asset Values based on page 11 of the financials and Fair Values page 7 of the presentation. Thanks to you and others that have provided feedback. Believe the following is a more accurate representation - estimated sum of the parts has come down to $11.58.

To your point above, there is definitely an arbitrage opportunity here. It also demonstrates the valuations are very much on the money and able to be realised over a period of time. This should provide high confidence $11.58 is achievable.

Adjustments here are based on pg11 NAV and pg7 of presentation. Have reduced Avante Capital purchase price based on what you mentioned above

Have updated more detail here. The cash at bank had included amounts from underlying boutiques - notes identify correct amount below.
Changes as follows:

Here are additional notes:

GQG Capital Gain and adjusted tax rate based on financial notes:

Best of Luck
Lost

Last edited by lost: 18/03/24

PAC Price at posting: $9.42 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
2 Upvote

1 Great analysis

Reply