These are my thoughts too, Hotpy. PAR need to now prove once and for all that they can monetise their supply exclusivity (i.e. the asset). The prevailing attitude on HotCopper is that eventual deals are inevitable. This is how it has been positioned by the company for years. However, their track record has been a grand total of zero deals. The company is priced as if there is a significant risk of management not being able to close a deal for the asset at all.
I would swing from the light fittings if we closed a deal for, say, South America which had even US$10 million up front. This would validate so much, and rid the market of significant, priced-in, fears. It would also virtually assure the same, much higher in fact, for other regions....China, Europe, the US. The first deal cannot come soon enough.
Assuming the IND is approved there are no more excuses left. None. We are coming down to the wire. I don't see how PAR has a future without a deal to fund FDA trials. Let's think about it, PR has confirmed US$50-60m (AU$90m) to complete Phase III trials. This is the entire market cap of the company today at 24c. How does this money possibly get raised otherwise? There are caps on how much can be raised, and as things stand, there isn't enough equity in the actual company anymore to trade-out for the means to complete trials. CR's can only be used as small bridges now. They are not getting the job done on their own. It really is deals or death.
If no deals can be struck upon IND approval, then the Phase III FDA trials will need to be shelved indefinitely. The bear case for this company is still total collapse, and a total loss of everyone's investment capital. PAR cannot go the journey alone. Perhaps an open FDA IND even without us starting trials could be enough for TGA to let us start selling in Australia, but that would basically be the primary avenue left to generate income and keep the company alive without deals. It's as serious as it gets. Everyone still holding their ticket needs PAR to step up to the plate, finally, in the months ahead.
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