Ann: Paradigm Receives $7.36m R&D Tax Incentive Refund, page-18

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sholtz

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07/02/24

13:06

Post #: 72283244
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Originally posted by Dungiven: ↑

Money through the door is great, but this amounts to about a month's funding, while we are still years away from revenue. Therefore, deals please. Denial is absolutely right, any whiff of genuine future revenues should be very impactful. Aside from hopefully a cash injection, striking a deal will offer a lookthrough to potential future sales which will really get people thinking about intrinsic and potential value of this asset again. However, we're really on a razors edge - and I remain dubious that management can achieve a deal in time to stop further major damage occurring first.

They might say we have a cash runway until end of 2024 (Who could have predicted mid-2025 wouldn't happen, hey?), but they'll want to preserve 2 quarters of cash, which means a material cash injection by mid-2024 or a CR.

A CR in May-July 2024 will be UGLY. If 2mgx2 doesn't send us flying (and i'm far from confident that it will) then we are deep in the SP doldrums until trial funding is demonstrably sorted, or sure signs appear that it can be funded without massive, and I mean massive, dilution (i.e. deals emerging). So forget PAR's guidance of EOFY for a deal. If no deals come through by late-April/start of May, tax-loss selling will begin in earnest. There is just not enough reason for people to impact their capital gains on other stocks by not cutting out some losers like PAR, especially based on the "trust me" forecasting of a now known-b*llshitter that deals are expected by end of June.

This tax-loss selling can really thump the SP downwards at that time of year. Apply a further discount to get the instos moving again and we are now raising in desperation again at thoroughly sickening prices.

Even if a deal materialises and has $30m up front, that will still only likely get us until the end of 2024 before we reach a similar spot again. There is so much work to be done to avert the very literal multiplication of our shares on issue in CY24, and I don't think even the hopeful guidance the company has given us (a deal by end of June) will be good enough to prevent it.

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Yes look at the tax loss selling of this one back in the day!

PAR Price at posting: 35.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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