@ty42 I've held CXO from 50m mc in 2020 when they were still exploring, to the mine opening in November.
Around 50 million market cap on purchase to 2.6b today. During that time spodumene has gone from $1200/tonne to around $6000/tonne at auction (refer PLS and their BMX platform).
A rough comparison would be;
Explorer with good hits: 50m Going for feasibility of a mine: 100-150m DFS: 200-350m Capital raise for construction: 500-600m News on mine construction: 1.5b
Their mine construction time was 12 months, ASN are looking at 2 years from todays announcement.
If ASN have similar numbers/EBITDA then the price today is a bit higher at the DFS stage, but from what I can see the market may be saying;
DFS: 500m (50c) Successful Cap Raise for construction: may push to 750-1000m (75-100c) Mine construction finish 1.5-3b ($1.5-$3)
Note; these are assumptions I made on the dunny, they do not have any bearing on what will happen. This is just gut feeling from what I've seen the market do to CXO, PLS and other lithium players. ASN have very high quality carbonate with easy distribution to potential buyers (Tesla are one state over). They have a unique position that makes them look very good at the moment.
As usual DYOR, but have a look at the announcements from PLS and CXO over the past few years and have a look at the SP at each announcement post, it'll give you a gut feeling for market sentiment, but we have seen a huge rise in lithium value in the past 24 months. It's a white hot commodity and China is trying to soak up as much of it as possible.
