Here's the counterview:
Your March and June production estimates still look unduly optimistic. Management released revised FY2020 production guidance of 5.2 - 5.6kt contain Ni metal. Let's use the midpoint and call it 5.4kt. Less 3.284kt already produced YTD (per recent quarterly) leaves revised production guidance of ~3kt contain Ni metal for 2H by... their... own... estimates. The quarterly stated that grades are only expected to improve over the second half of calendar year 2020 (implying not before).
Also, given the Thunder Bay deal has been extended multiple times, I don't think there's any basis for factoring that AU$5m payment due in March until the cash has actually been deposited. That puts the revised notional cash position at end-Jan (now incl. HRN proceeds) at ~$28.85m. Now subtract the disclosed anticipated ~$5m
additional devex relating to the raisebore takes the available cash balance down to ~$24m.
The 64k question is whether the HRN part-sale was enough to stave off coming back to the market with cap in hand (equity or debt). I suspect it was an attempt to buy some time, but with macro forces (see below) currently working against PAN, there's at least one more round coming, imo. Question is whether it'll be debt or a CR. In light of the HRN deal, my view on Zeta taking debt has softened. Looks like it might be a CR after all.
Spot Ni is currently retesting the January lows in a setting in which LME warehouse levels have now bounced (somewhat breathtakingly quickly) to above 220kt gross. That said, ~135+kt is net Open/Live tonnage, with the balance tonnage now Cancelled and awaiting outbound shipping, so there's that.
New COVID-19 infections look to be leveling off, which is encouraging, but who really knows when the source data is coming out of China. I think there's more ST weakness for spot Ni as the wave of news flow regarding the full impact of related Chinese and global supply chain disruption is yet to come. Global equity markets are factoring a quick rebound. Spot Ni is showing less near-term optimism. None of this will help PAN over the next couple of months, imo, until these negative macro forces pass, which will likely continue to feed into its cash flow challenges.
One ray of hope on the operating (micro) front is Barminco starting in earnest come EOQ, which is promising. However, I don't think the promised benefits will have had enough time filter through in order to avert another cash top-up within the next ~2-ish months.
(20min delay)