AGL don't own the windfarms directly... its not even unconditional yet (but it cannot fail as the two largest holders have said they will accept - so already over 75% which defeats any special resolution challenges)... so in terms of them making a profit or not... not 100% a concern for AGL.
AGLs primary concern in terms of generation should be that it does not enter into PPAs which are grossly overpriced or without any adjustment mechanism to them to counter a decrease in NEM spot pricing.
Tilts NZ assets are already under full PPA agreement with Mercury... cant say I know if / how much of Australias generation is already taken by PPA's... was standard practice for last few years to PPA at least a portion of the generation to ensure cash flow.... Quick look shows that 6% of Dundonnell wind farm is already sold to ALDI for 10 years... 15 year PPA for Newcrest mining for 55% of the output from a windfarm (Rye Park) expected to be operational in 2024... there will be plenty of others.
Will be interesting to see how the commercial side of TLT's current operations are handled... ie... will they continue to make their own deals - or will that part come through to AGL etc... and AGL get 100% of output and PPA's transfer from TLT to AGL.
Consider this though... once a wind farm / solar farm is constructed... the only ongoing costs are maintenance, they do not need to purchase a resource (such as coal) to then burn / consume to generate electricity. Even if we did pay Johnny B Lucky $150 per hour to clean panels, it would be on a contract basis, with a fixed (or almost completely fixed) costs, Renewables can be impacted by weather... but the output can be predicted reasonably accurately over a number of years... makes the future earnings easier to work out
I run SMSF... so IMO - super does count as a holding as I completely control when and what I invest in.
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