Spot on. High expectations have already been baked in, so...

Spot on. High expectations have already been baked in, so delivery of anything less will send the share price down big time. The proof of that, to me, is the failure of good announcements to have any effect.

I'm wrestling with staying in this one. My strategy for months has been to buy on the dip and sell on the announcement, while holding on to my core shares. But that's only worked when the announcements sent the share price up a bit. It has required trading 1m shares at a time to make a profit of a few thousand (after taking into account no CGT discount), so not much in it, and increasingly anxious days between buy and sell as the percentage of increase shrinks dramatically. Now the announcements are either doing nothing or sending the price down, so the strategy no longer works.

My pip trading has at least provided (in total) a reasonable return, and I'm in profit with my core shares. So am considering bailing now before they go into loss territory. Maybe come back in at the end of Feb when the MRE is announced? I don't know. I think the share price will be lower then, as poor, lacklustre or no announcements will play on market sentiment more than when good news is announced. The real risk is that a poor MRE will send it down with an anchor. I wouldn't want to have just bought back in if that happens!