You are so right. US$$40 million loss is equal to 2 cents on the...

You are so right.

US$$40 million loss is equal to 2 cents on the share price even if it has to be paid right away. And with an appeal, it will be several more months before the actual cash is paid out, assuming they lose the appeal. So the share price at 12 cents or so, has priced in all the bad news.

Now add the fact that there is very little float...that means few sellers of size out there. Any buyer of any size will have to pay up...and it is not inconceivable to me that we may end up actually higher on the day, than lower. I mean what reason is left to not buy the shares now?

Note that this company piled in the cash at NZ$100 million+ in the last 12 months. So paying the US$40 million next year is not that hard...maybe 8 to 12 months of cash flow?

I think the coking coal price is headed higher...much higher. How else do you explain the fact that copper, oil, gold are all down hard in the last few weeks, and coking coal price hardly got below $180? If it is headed to $200 again (as I believe), it will make it that much easier for BRL to pay up.

This of course assumes that BRL is not able to negotiate a better deal with L&M Coal. This judgement of course means L&M now has the far superior hand...but for any deal to take place, the loss to BRL has to be lower than the US$40 million currently being priced in.

I think this is as good a buying opportunity there will be, for BRL.