We have a pretty low likelihood of significant bad news in the...

We have a pretty low likelihood of significant bad news in the next two years. Our big hurdle in the near term is funding for Phase IIB. I'd give us a 99% chance of getting the Phase IIB funded. Will it be funded in a way that is favorable to shareholders? Who knows, but I think the chances of us not being funded at all and having to drop the program is basically nil.

I think the only things that could have us see a similar precipitous decline in share price are either safety problems in the Phase IIB (unlikely given our past safety profile), or weak efficacy results that show little/nothing in the way of clinically meaningful or statistically significant results over placebo (low-moderate likelihood).

So basically we will have to wait 2-2.5 years for efficacy results in a placebo-controlled trial, at which point we will either be a billion dollar company or worthless company. But there is little/nothing in the near-term barring unlikely safety problems that would see us tank like ATX.