I appreciate your points, but
1. Barangaroo still gets opened even if not owned by Crown.
2. Sunk cost
3. Costly litigation - well not if they want to placate the regulators and gain cooperation on getting the best sale price, and CWN might want to provide a waiver to all parties to get that.
4. A billionaire who will be focussed on getting the best possible return, even if a divestment is required. A spin off could be difficult as JP would still probably be majority SH. I would think he would want to buy time to get away from this Covid period and then totally get out, as foreigners might be hesitant to be associated with "his" casinos from a publicity point of view, even if his transgressions are very mild. So might be an overhang there for a time, but a good opp for a buy at that time expecting rerate.
Just my 2c worth as Devil's Advocate.
CWN Price at posting:
$9.64 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held