I think people are missing entirely the source of this...

I think people are missing entirely the source of this trade/relational problem we are having with China. This whole shamozzle with China derives directly from the China-US trade agreement that was signed in January this year to ease trade tensions between two economic superpowers.  Annex 6.1 clearly sets out the levels of increase in trade required by China at the behest of the US of US goods. The trade deal runs to the end of 2021.

In the table it is clear where our barley/coal/wine etc issues are coming from. China has an amount x of each product it needs each year. In order to satisfy the trade deal with the US it has to redivert imports from somewhere else to the United States. That somewhere else, in certain sectors, is Australia.

All the hullabaloo about political grievances with Australia I believe is just China scoring some cheap and easily gained political points on the back of a specific economic need to contract imports from our country and redirect them towards the United States. In a sense, the reason we are in this trade pickle is because our closest top tier ally doesn't care as much about collateral economic damage to its friends as it does to its own bottom line. If I were American this wouldn't bother me at all, but as an Australian it kinda sucks.

I think all this Huawei  / Hong Kong commentary / First voice on a Covid enquiry / etc..... all the stuff unofficially released recently out of the Embassy is just cashing in some political freebies. I think we would probably do the same if we could, and I really don't think China is that perturbed at all by what we say about the way they do things.

I also think this is why the Australian Government can't officially contact  China at the moment. I wouldn't be surprised if they are calling them at 2am Beijing time just to make sure nobody answers.

Our relationship with China is not damaged per say, and I don't think they really give a f.f.f about what we say about their internal machinations (though I do think maybe the Huawei thing stung them a bit). It's just that China have been forced to divert imports away from current trading partners towards the US to avoid the worst of the squeeze the US was going to put on them.

For TWE shareholders and other companies/industries affected by the very sudden change in the landscape, I thought this would probably be something that might sort itself out beyond Dec 2021 when the trade deal runs its course, but I note an important clause in Chapter 6: Expanding Trade - Article 6.2 'Trade Opportunities' point 3:

"The parties project that the trajectory of increases in the amounts of manufactured goods, agricultural goods, energy products and services purchased and imported in China from the United States will continue in calendar years 2022 through 2025".

These to me are the most important 37 words in Australian Trade at the moment. Given this pivotal paragraph in the agreement, I think the best chance for the Australian industries affected by the current trade squeeze we're getting from China (including TWE) is that President-elect Biden will ease up on any expectations beyond the scope of the trade agreement, in which case affected Australian exporters might have something to look forward to from early 2022 onwards. But it will be difficult politically for him to tamper with the only real goal the current Administration has scored in Office.

I don't think Australia and Australians need to be running around playing the victim here in this shitstorm, but we are certainly a casualty.

Good luck to holders going forward.