If the current court case is resolved in a positive way for Aguia, I would expect a rerate of the company considering our current MC is under $20m.
The original project economic modeling was done with a potash price below $100/t for memory.
The October 2021 announcement of a MOU for bulk sale was at $74/t AUD FOB although this was non binding as per the announcement.
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02441005-2A1333444?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4
Given all fertilizer prices have risen dramatically since then the project economics must be looking very sweet now.
Below is a graphic from another potash companies presentation showing MCs of some larger fertilizer companies. This is from August last year.
Forward EV/EBITDA of around 8.
Someone maybe able to provide a better comparison for a company with a comparible resource and annual production to Aguia.
Monthly prices USD/t for various fertilizers going back around 12 months. Notice the steep price increases in all.
Just some idle speculation while we wait for the results of the trading halt.
If the current court case is resolved in a positive way for...
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