AGR aguia resources limited
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If the current court case is resolved in a positive way for...

  1. magus
    220 Posts.
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    10/05/22
    16:35
    Post #: 61321115

    If the current court case is resolved in a positive way for Aguia, I would expect a rerate of the company considering our current MC is under $20m.

    The original project economic modeling was done with a potash price below $100/t for memory.

    The October 2021 announcement of a MOU for bulk sale was at $74/t AUD FOB although this was non binding as per the announcement.
    https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02441005-2A1333444?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4

    Given all fertilizer prices have risen dramatically since then the project economics must be looking very sweet now.

    Below is a graphic from another potash companies presentation showing MCs of some larger fertilizer companies. This is from August last year.
    Forward EV/EBITDA of around 8.
    Someone maybe able to provide a better comparison for a company with a comparible resource and annual production to Aguia.
    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/4331/4331911-e112a2ef1178356aefe12eccd04a257a.jpg


    Monthly prices USD/t for various fertilizers going back around 12 months. Notice the steep price increases in all.

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/4331/4331932-ed7aa25cc7f136f7757d035325df01e0.jpg

    Just some idle speculation while we wait for the results of the trading halt.

    Last edited by magus: 10/05/22
    AGR Price at posting: 5.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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    lightbulb Created with Sketch.  Great analysis
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