Hi Cate,I go by what is now, not what may be in the future. In...

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candidcamera

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12/09/22

15:26

Post #: 63651757
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Originally posted by cate88: ↑

Hi Candid,
A few thoughts:
As I've previously posted, any cap raise was never going to be at a 30-40% discount. I gave examples of recent cap raisings in this sector and discounts which have turned out to be similar to this raise.
You say this raise is insufficient and that the price to raise the real amount needed would have scared off many investors. If they'd announced a CR of $20m at 2c it would have caused panic you say.
Candid, a little maths shows this is in fact a $22 million cap raise. About $12 million from the placement and the SPP and highly likely another $1m if Newcrest exercises its rights to additional shares to maintain its 9.9% stake, all at 2.7c.
In addition there are attached options issued at 4c which will probably bring in another $9million over the coming year. So $22m in total.
I'm not surprised you're still not a buyer. As I've said previously. Psychology. You've been burned before elsewhere and will second guess yourself that price will keep falling.

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Hi Cate,
I go by what is now, not what may be in the future. In terms of the CR, the figures I quoted are those that will be in AZY's bank account after it is done, should it be fully subscribed. What may happen with options a year from now, or what may happen if NCM buys its allocation, was not part of my calculation.

Yes, I've been burned before, and the experience has certainly fine-tuned my antenna for possible repeats. But you're getting me wrong if you think that I apply this attitude to every stock. I wouldn't be investing at all if that were the case, or at least only in "blue chips". As I mentioned, I took my money from trading and selling down AZY and put it into WHC, which I'm pleased with. I'm happy to take a calculated risk with a stock that I think has runs on the board, proven assets, and has been unfairly beaten down.

Perhaps the psychological aspect you talk about is a mirror you're avoiding pointing at yourself. Maybe you've owned and believed in AZY for so long, without any good financial results, that maintaining your position is the only thing left to hang on to.

AZY Price at posting: 2.7¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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