with the following anyone should be able to replicate my result of US$1.8Bn , everything in USD unless stated otherwise
price assumptions:
opex: PFS A$160M x 2.83 scale to DFS outputs + 20% inflation - 25% economy of scale discount = U$272M ($7.7/lb Ni)
capex: $1.1Bn
debt: $670M (A$250M/A$500M/$190M, EFA/NAIF/K-sure)
equity: $430M
--LG/POSCO pre-payment for 10,000ton Ni and 1000t Co = $300M
GM $49M (dilutive)
-capraise the balance for $80M @32c (dilutive)
tax rate: 30%
depreciable assets: 1/2 of capex $550M
depreciation rate 10%
discount rate 8%
AUDUSD 0.64
LOM 25 years
2 year build capex shared evenly
2 year ramp for both rev and opex (year 1=60%, year 2=90%, year 3+ 100%)
can send the model to anyone interested
appreciate any constructive feedback (ideally not from self nominated regulators )
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