Looks good. A couple of questions:
1) What is your post tax free cash flow (peak and average) in AUD? (you must be getting close to $400m)
2) What is your post tax NPV in AUD? (I'm not sure whether your $1.8b US is pre or post tax)
3) Can you provide unlevered post tax NPV and post tax FCF in AUD? Most NPVs are unlevered as it makes them easier to compare - just not sure whether your numbers are unlevered?
4) Why are you including depreciation? Are you just using this to reduce tax payable?
5) Why is the price of Magnesia so low? I thought it was more than $3,000 per ton (though I have little knowledge in this area)?
6) Why does capex dilution and the price raised matter for the purpose of the NPV calculation?
Other than these questions your assumptions look pretty solid to me. Exhange rate is probably low if anything. You are factoring in a fairly low Hematite price, perhaps influenced by the current events, hard to know whether this is being overly conservative.
I would be interested in looking at your model in more detail if you can DM me on Twitter here.
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