MSB 1.61% $1.07 mesoblast limited

Ann: Pause in Trading, page-71

  1. 1,434 Posts.
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    Yes, its smart all right. And, importantly, ahead of the game.

    There are continuing efforts by cockroaches to portray MSB as at best bumblingly reactionary & assert that it's constantly just reacting to bad situations which are all of its own making, and so has no planning at all.

    Yet the truth is that, despite not having reached breakeven, MSB has over the past 3 years used all assets at its disposal - from scaleable manufacturing terms (confining cash flow impacts to little more than marginal production costs), through come & go facilities all the way up to equity placements and including new capital raises - to address its financing requirements. And what's more, it's done so by mixing and matching debt and equity elements rather than rely on them in isolation e.g. the current Oaktree facility with the equity option kicker secured by warrants.

    These are hallmarks of an agile business entity manoeuvering across a battlefield, in my opinion. First, the planning, then the flexible execution & then - and only then - the announcement of what its put in place.

    I'm particularly pleased atm with @col69 tracking down the parallel resourcing of Centers of Excellence as marketing/ information dissemination hubs. One could easily imagine that these staffed centers are intended as nodes for future product rollout. And that indicates to me a commitment, subject to approval, to MSB's own label extension (rather than farmout) as a minimum, and the possibility of MSB willingness to keep them and extend them to train and educate in connection with new product indications from Rexlemestrocel-l as well e.g. in CLBP.

    It's this apparent preparedness to grow the distribution and marketing side of the business which has me strongly believing that MSB is willing & considers itself able to handle the risks and rewards of growing itself & that it won't be planning to sell itself out to the highest bidder in the short- or medium-term.

    So, I don't then expect MSB to throw away its unissued share capital lightly or whimsically, but neither do I think that it's just going to sit there as window dressing for more than 12 months i.e. one complete business cycle.

    Yes, a portion will be applied to warrant conversion rights of Oaktree and exercised option issue obligations. I don't expect remaining debt will be paid out, because existing debt (apart from the equity option kickers) is relatively cheap as part of WACC. But, for the balance, I feel sure MSB's planning for something else.

    And given the size of the unissued share capital rump, I'm guessing it's gonna be big.

    Cheers
    Last edited by Phaedrus: 02/08/23
 
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