I personally don't think the impact will be all that great to be honest, and I don't think SGHT is a good comparison in this instance. The reason can be explained using simple maths. iTrack Advance was only recently approved a few months ago, whereas Sight Sciences' Omni device has been around for many years. We only have 200 customers currently, whilst SGHT has over 1,000 for Omni (I believe). If we assume that 50% of doctors will stop using the device (not necessarily the case, just using as it is an easy number) then EYE only needs to regain 100 more doctors, whilst SGHT has to regain 500 customers. For us, this should be quite easy really, especially given we have been anticipating that iTrack Advance would gain hundreds and even thousands of customers quite fast. There is an impetus for rapid adoption (recent FDA approval of the new device) by many new customers, which should easily offset those lost. For SGHT, it is virtually impossible for them to regain these customers, as the size is so great and there is no impetus to encourage rapid adoption for that device by new doctors. Their revenues will contract by quite significantly, they will have to cut the business down in size, and therefore that company's share price is reflecting this. EYE is already a small company; it won't need to cut staff or reduce productive capacity as things were only getting started here anyways. We might not see the hundred plus percent growth we were hoping for, but I don't necessarily think we won't still see some growth (or at least flat revenue). This is valued at a very low revenue multiple, it hasn't yet had a growth stock multiple applied, so really the downside should be limited. Moreover, we do have 2RT as well. There are many more companies with far more speculative projects than 2RT which are valued at far higher multiples than EYE is valued at currently.
I definitely still really like the company. It is hard to find too many companies valued under $50m with high quality management teams, best in class revenue generating products and an exciting R&D pipeline. It is unfortunate we have to deal with insurers who are more concerned with their own profit than funding important medical devices, but I see management pulling through this and delivering strong returns in the longer run. I will be a buyer at any price under 15c, as really anything less than that would be quite absurd, considering the growth impetus which is definitely still in play here.
I would like to see the company come out with some actual guidance for revenue though. The market will need more than a vague statement like "we are doing what we can to appeal the decision but it is still very complex" and will want to know what to expect on the revenue/profit front, what are the specific pathways to appeal or gather evidence, and I guess the outlook generally for the next year. It would also be a very good time for the company to share more info on what is happening with 2RT, as that still has the potential to send the price soaring to all-time highs before Christmas assuming they can get the deal done soon...
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