Yea, I have seen some of the analyst valuations - using WACC around 11% to achieve low valuation metrics (which is a bit out there IMO. 7-9% is generally reasonable at the moment). None of them seem to stray far from each other which suggests to me at least, that:
1. There is a reputation pressure attached to their analysis which means they will adjust numbers to ensure they aren't too far away from others (which equals an unreliable valuation), and
2. Analysts aren't going too deep. There should be decent values attached to some intangibles that are unique for Dusk. ie, the brand and customer relations. Additionally, these analysts focus on growth, but haven't factored in that Dusk's original strategy was for 160 stores, however they have stumbled across regional store openings recently which extends that runway. Im not sure how many more they can get away with, but a conservative figure in my view would be 220. Further to that, they haven't even ventured into wholesale. So if growth is indeed included, which these forecasts and analysts all incorporate, they have failed to accomodate for this.
Another issue I have identified with the valuations is that, if there is lower revenue amongst stores, then there will also be an adjustment for labour. They wont surge as much during gifting season. The valuations are simply applying a percentage difference and keeping it consistent throughout the valuation without applying the thought process of "If this happens, then this will happen".
ComSec is forecasting 0.09 EPS. I personally think this is on the very lower end of possibilities if Dusk continues to be managed as strict as it has been. I therefore think 1.80 is also a bit too conservative and on the lower end of valuation possibilities.
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Yea, I have seen some of the analyst valuations - using WACC...
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