As we sit with bated breath awaiting the outcome of the latest TH I have been reflecting.
In a recent post I used and example of when MSB did a capital raise soon after a positive announcement (Grunenthal relationship).
In that raise it was at 3.15% discount to the 10-day VWAP price.
Using that example and basing it on today’s numbers resulted in a potential Cap Raise price of $2.898.
I think like many LTS I’m probably a bit gun shy (dare I say, a bit like
Oliver Twist, asking for “more please Sir”) and as a result somewhat conditioned to expect a discount similar to the above.
However, we are in a far stronger position than 2019.
We actually have very good reasons to be confident, based on the following:- The company has been significantly de-risked
- Has the first approval by the FDA in what is a paradigm shift in medicine
- A plethora of patents (providing a significant moat)
- A number of blockbuster products in the pipeline (as frequently discussed here)
I know
@ddwn has a long list of the opportunities, imminent and otherwise so I do not want to replicate his great list, other than to state the obvious that we can negotiate from a position of strength.
Ie we could look for a premium rather than a discount.
How many large corps can see the potential and wish to have a slice of the pie, how long would it take gain a reasonable stake with bots and the risk of a good news event dropping and causing a significant SP rise?
Finally, for fun I thought that I would look at the current incentives (based upon the published shareholdings) for our BoD to get the very best deal for every shareholder.
I looked at the number of shares each director held as of the 29th of Aug 2024, & what that equated to in value (AUD) as of last price.
I also looked at the impact /value of a 1 cent change to each director based upon their shareholding (I know there are some on HC who would be similarly impacted).
The figs come from the FY24 Financial Report.Name
Balance at the start of the year
Acquisitions/ (Disposals) during the year
Balance at the end of the FY24
Balance as 29/8/2024
Est Share Holding Value @ last closing price $2.81
Impact change 1c
Silviu Itescu
68,958,928
10,000,000
78,958,928
83,590,666
$234,889,771.46
$835,906.66
Eric Rose
-
411,620
411,620
3,433,719
$9,648,750.39
$34,337.19
Jane Bell
247,618
295,823
543,441
1,003,504
$2,819,846.24
$10,035.04
William Burns
85,000
21,250
106,250
735,901
$2,067,881.81
$7,359.01
Philip Facchina
273,225
-150,005
123,220
681,958
$1,916,301.98
$6,819.58
Philip Krause
100,000
187,500
287,500
745,884
$2,095,934.04
$7,458.84
Michael Spooner
1,091,335
1,091,335
1,169,000
$3,284,890.00
$11,690.00
Joseph Swedish
459,420
459,420
1,786,497
$5,020,056.57
$17,864.97
(20min delay)