The market appears to have written off Pavo as a duster already,...

The market appears to have written off Pavo as a duster already, this is really stupid as nobody has a clue at this stage. Pavo action so far is very strange. Normally you would see a run up to spud with an important well like this, on the spud there is usually bit of a sell /profit taking, then a slow buildup till the trading halt (when the truth hits one way or the other). With Pavo there has only been one big move down,( yet it has a 34% chance of success which is high for a wildcat). The only reason I can see for this is the Buffalo disaster, which has caused the market to over act on the downside. After Pavo ,Apus drilling starts, so two very important wells with a reasonable chance of success. At this stage we are still a long way from the two dusters the market appears to be suggesting.