AMI 2.50% 19.5¢ aurelia metals limited

As usual, its buy on spec, sell on fact. Two obvious drivers for...

  1. 2,000 Posts.
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    As usual, its buy on spec, sell on fact.  Two obvious drivers for sellers:

    "The recent reduction in base metal prices may result in negative price adjustments on June quarter base metal sales, with the impact likely to be registered in the September quarter. "

    and

    "Production at Peak was driven by the exceptionally high grade but low tonnage Chronos zone (average mined grade of 31 g/t in the quarter).  Gold grades at both Hera and Peak overdelivered relative to expected grades"
    So, with a worsening base metal outlook, and gold grades likely to revert back to resource estimates, the next quarter might be less stellar than the last.

    I don't buy it.

    The good fortune of a high grade gold pocket at Chronos came at a time when getting rid of the debt is best leveraged: earlier rather than later.  With no debt, the AISC will decrease further, balancing the (supposed) reduction in head grade (actually, just as likely to stay put as go down!).

    Base metal sales makes up less than 32% of total revenue.  So, if base metal prices reduce, the comparable reduction in total revenue is only a third of that reduction.

    With a focus on increasing gold recovery, I see no major issues and will hold.
 
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