Just providing my view of what it looks to me is happening....

Just providing my view of what it looks to me is happening. Please don't bash me. I am just writing my opinion, I have no control or wish how it plays.

As always, its my opinion, I could be wrong, completely wrong. I am talking about patterns and probabilities.
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RDN is now in not a good position. Initial results are not good. My experience with over 100 Lithium stocks in ASX who reported bad initial results, like RDN, I don't remember anyone recovering. But that is probability. Each play is different. Each ground different. There is no reason RDN cannot hit the jackpot. Because we don't know the future.
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This week play was not good. By Wednesday, it reached 1.8 on a moderate volume. As if a big bounce is coming. In hindsight, it looks like a trap. Next day, 150m trading day, drop to 1.1. Those who wanted to exited, laid the plan for volume. I could be wrong. Maybe there is good news.
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Unfortunately ASX Li play is in a very weak state. PLS made new lows. LTR lost 14% this week. So macro is not helping.
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I feel RDN now needs something of its own to get out from here. Something very strong. Something people will believe. As I wrote last week, and have been writing for over 2 years, nearology for close to 100 Li stocks has not worked. It doesn't mean it will not for RDN. But first signs, first drill results, are not good. Either you accept or go till the end. Its individual choice. Individual risk/reward. Based on the numbers I have been reporting, none, and I mean none of the 100 stocks playing nearology and not good initial results have recovered. In fact, most are in survival mode. Again, it doesn't mean RDN has to be part of same statistics.
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Overall ASX Li macro is looking very poor. That is not helping the cause. If we were 2 years back, everyone looked at 10 good points rather than 90 bad points. So every Tom, Dick and Harry had a great run, on those 10 good points. Things have changed. Everyone is now looking at those 90 bad points. So timing is not good.
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This is what I wrote in my Weekly Report for Li sector on SYA thread, anyone wanting to know more about how 90 Li stocks have tracked, general market behaviour, other sectors, please look at my other posts as I post the Weekly Report on one thread.
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• • Lithium Sector overview - ASX Lithium stocks are in a strife. Most Li stocks made lows in early September. Then there was a revival. Most Li stocks gained 40 to 60%. It looked like we may be back. In last few weeks, all have been given away. Nearly. Most stocks have now breached and gone below the lows of early September. So a very, very concerning stage now for ASX Li stocks
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  • Chinese Li stocks still doing great. They also made lows in early September. They also started recovering. They also gained between 40 to 60%. But they did something differently to ASX Li stocks. They have kept the gains, most of it. Ganfeng on Friday was above 60% of its lows, Tianqi above 50% of its lows
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  • US Li stock still doing all right. They also made lows in early September. They also started gaining, around 40 to 60%. ALB on Friday was around 45% above its low. Other US Li stock not doing that great, but ALB the flag bearer is. So US Li stocks have also played differently to ASX Li stocks. They have kept the gains. .
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  • Why is this discrepancy/divergence happening? Not sure. Will it go away? Does ASX Li stocks become more attractive now, because if they were to do catch-up, they could do higher gains? Or is ASX Li stocks indicating, the run by US and Chinese Li stocks will not be maintained and they will come down? Or this is the new play - ASX Punters now have to deal with this, a lot may be driven by shorters as well..
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  • This divergence by itself, which is few weeks old in building, may not have been concerning. But this is what has happened to ASX Uranium stocks. It started in August. I initially thought that divergence is opportunity, ASX U are undervalued and gains could be more here. But it continued. And continued. Now its 4 months, and divergence is getting bigger rather than smaller. That sector under the shorters grip too. Is that the only reason? Or ASX punters have become too risk averse?