If a major were to drill two separate wells—one targeting Oryx...

If a major were to drill two separate wells—one targeting Oryx and the other targeting Hyrax—the figures from the document break down as follows:

Oryx Single Well

• Gross Recoverable Resources (Best Case): 534 MMbbls
• GCoS: 22.5%
• Risked Recoverable Estimate:
    534 MMbbls × 22.5% ≈ 120 MMbbls

Hyrax Single Well

• Gross Recoverable Resources (Best Case): 534 MMbbls
• GCoS: 19.7%
• Risked Recoverable Estimate:
    534 MMbbls × 19.7% ≈ 105 MMbbls

Combined Analysis

• Total Combined Risked Resources:
    ≈ 120 MMbbls + 105 MMbbls = 225 MMbbls

• Individual Well Success Probabilities:
    Oryx: 22.5% chance of success
    Hyrax: 19.7% chance of success

• Probability of Hitting Oil in at Least One Well:
    If we assume the two wells are independent, the chance that a given well fails is:
    • Oryx failure: 77.5% (1 – 22.5%)
    • Hyrax failure: 80.3% (1 – 19.7%)
    The probability both fail is:
      0.775 × 0.803 ≈ 0.622 (or 62.2%)
    Thus, the chance that at least one well is successful is:
      1 – 0.622 ≈ 38%

Summary

Drilling two single wells—one on Oryx and one on Hyrax—yields a combined risked resource potential of approximately 225 MMbbls (when weighting the best-case recoverable volumes by their respective GCoS) and an overall probability of roughly 38% that at least one well will encounter oil.

These estimates provide a simplified risk assessment that assumes independence between the prospects, and they serve as a useful gauge for evaluating a dual-well drilling campaign offshore Namibia.

Multi‐Target Well (Oryx, Calypso, Addax Channel)

Gross Recoverable Estimates (100%):
• Oryx: 168 (Low) / 534 (Best) / 1,541 (High) MMbbls with a GCoS of 22.5%
• Addax Channel: 26 (Low) / 102 (Best) / 487 (High) MMbbls with a GCoS of 16.3%
• Calypso: 4 (Low) / 34 (Best) / 134 (High) MMbbls with a GCoS of 19.4%

Combined Totals:
• Gross Recoverable Best Case: 534 + 102 + 34 = 670 MMbbls
• Weighted Average GCoS:
 – Calculate each product using best-case values:
  Oryx: 534 × 22.5% ≈ 120.15
  Addax Channel: 102 × 16.3% ≈ 16.63
  Calypso: 34 × 19.4% ≈ 6.60
 – Sum: 120.15 + 16.63 + 6.60 ≈ 143.38
 – Divide by total best-case (670 MMbbls): 143.38 / 670 ≈ 21.4%

Chance of Success for Multi‐Target Well:
Assuming independence among targets, the failure chance for each is (1 – GCoS):
• Oryx: 77.5%
• Addax Channel: 83.7%
• Calypso: 80.6%

The probability that all three fail is approximately:
  0.775 × 0.837 × 0.806 ≈ 52.3%
Thus, the chance that at least one target is successful is about:
  100% – 52.3% ≈ 47.7%

Standalone Hyrax Prospect

Gross Recoverable Estimates (100%):
• Hyrax: 122 (Low) / 534 (Best) / 1,417 (High) MMbbls
• GCoS: 19.7%

For a separate well on Hyrax, the chance of success is directly the GCoS: approximately 19.7%.

Combined Drilling Campaign

If the operator drills both a multi‐target well and a separate Hyrax well—assuming the outcomes are independent—the probability that neither well encounters oil is:

  (1 – 47.7%) × (1 – 19.7%) ≈ 52.3% × 80.3% ≈ 42.0%

Thus, the chance of at least one well being successful is:

  100% – 42.0% ≈ 58%

Risked Resource Estimates

When weighting the best-case recoverable figures by the GCoS, the “risked” recoverable resources are estimated as:

• Multi‐Target Well: 670 MMbbls × 21.4% ≈ 143 MMbbls
• Hyrax Well: 534 MMbbls × 19.7% ≈ 105 MMbbls

This gives a combined risked resource of roughly 248 MMbbls if both prospects prove to be productive.

Summary

A major operator might propose drilling:

1. A multi‐target well testing the Oryx, Calypso, and Addax Channel leads with an estimated gross recoverable resource of about 670 MMbbls (weighted to roughly 143 MMbbls risked) and a ~48% chance of success for at least one target;
2. A separate well on the Hyrax prospect with around 534 MMbbls gross (approximately 105 MMbbls risked) and a 19.7% success chance.

When combined, the overall probability of hitting oil in at least one of the wells is approximately 58%, and the integrated risked resource potential would be on the order of 248 MMbbls.

These figures provide a compelling rationale for a dual drilling campaign that balances risk across multiple targets while maximizing the chance of a commercially significant discovery.

Hi all,

sorry about the order of the message, I am posting from my phone.

Following on from the big kick in the guts this week I was wondering about the viability of this prospect for PCL. Regarding our two main leads orynx and hyrax. PS I have no geo experience and this is my first oil exploration stock.

I plugged in the resource estimate file to chat gpts deep reasoning model and this is what I got. Would be great to get opinions from from more experienced posters too and encourage further discussion regarding what factors might make Pcl attractive to super majors IE risk v reward.

Here is what I got from the deep reasoning model, hope it can prompt some further conversation: