Ann: PEL 87 Project Prospective Resources, page-142

Hi all,

Sorry for the formatting earlier—posting from my phone. After this week's setback, I wanted to assess the viability of PCL's prospects, focusing on Oryx and Hyrax. This is my first oil exploration stock, and I have no geo experience, so I ran the resource estimates through ChatGPT’s deep reasoning model. Would love feedback from more experienced members.

I am trying to get a better idea of the risk vs gain here for a supermajor. Also interested expected drill and production costs to further improve this understanding from what I could find on the model it predicted $20 per barrel for production and around 200-400 million for the two drills.

Single-Well Analysis

Prospect	Best Case (MMbbls)	GCoS (%)	Risked Estimate (MMbbls)	Success Probability (%)
Oryx	534	22.5%	120	22.5%
Hyrax	534	19.7%	105	19.7%
Combined (Oryx + Hyrax)	1,068	—	225	~38% (at least one success)

Summary: Drilling single wells on Oryx and Hyrax results in 225 MMbbls risked with a ~38% probability of at least one discovery.

Multi-Target Well (Oryx, Calypso, Addax Channel)

Prospect	Best Case (MMbbls)	GCoS (%)	Risked Estimate (MMbbls)
Oryx	534	22.5%	120
Addax Ch.	102	16.3%	16.6
Calypso	34	19.4%	6.6
Total	670	21.4%	143

Summary: A multi-target well testing Oryx, Calypso, and Addax Channel risked 143 MMbbls with a ~47.7% probability of success.

Combined Drilling Campaign (Multi-Target + Hyrax Well)

Drilling Plan	Risked Resource (MMbbls)	Success Probability (%)
Multi-Target Well	143	47.7%
Hyrax Well	105	19.7%
Combined Campaign	248	~58%