this "original oil in place density"
is modeled statistically. That means: probability distributions were generated for calculating the original oil in place (OOIP).
I was hoping that , someone can estimate the h (thickness of net pay) from one of the published seismic lines .
comparing Venus, Mopane, Saturn?
Anyway, from Total we heard they are going to drill about 40 wells. 40 wells (!) is a high number for one FPSO vessel. Priviously Total mentioned that 2-3 FPSOs could be necessary for Venus. Venus with the low end permeability of 2-6 mD can only be produced because
1. The pay zone h has a good thickness, around 100 meters and
2. The oil viscosity is very low.
From Galp we know they got low oil viscosity as well and our interpretation is that permeability of Mopane is better than from Venus. So even with a smaller pay zone Galp could do a production test with 14.000 bbl/d ( constrained).
PCL needs to drill the Oryx and Hydrax exploration wells. The data (like h, k, test rate, phi saturation etc.) are needed to calculate commecial producible reserves. Only with these data and results top $$ will be paid for a possible take over of PCL - will be paid by a big oil company.
Perhaps Woodside has seen some not so optimistic seismik interpretations, but at the end of the day it is just an "interpretation" and you need more data, facts, results from the exploration wells for the Final Investment Decision = billion $ investment for the field development (FID).
Total with Venus seems to be close to the FID. And Total got a big drilling cost advantage and availability as owner of a offshore drilling unit. Clever French.
Galp is too small for the Final Investment Decision (in my opinion) and is waiting for the farm in of a bigger oil company.
Woodside I think saw the risk of financially overstretching with a FID and did not manage to get a farm in partner ( see suzywong's thoughts).
So since Woodside left, there should be no restrictions for PCL to send the 3D seismik data and interpretations to the big oil companies like Total Shell, Chevron ExxonMobil, Equinor, Petrobras, Eni, BP ... or perhaps to an aggressive independent with money from investment banks in the background like perhaps Kosmos.
I think PCL should hurry up because the Namibians wish to see results ASAP too. ( not just us PCL share holders).
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