Thanks for collating this data OG - there is certainly lots of data points to consider, and the ambiguity can be difficult to handle / make sense of (from an analysis perspective). Obviously PCL & co, can only de-risk the prospect to a certain extent - before ultimatly a drill is needed to confirm 'what we know or think we know'. I think to your point the GCOS (while low, is still within the realms of deepwater frontier exploration) needs to be improved somehow. Previous data has indicated a 280m gross section (2021 Pancon Quarterly, or refer to Sintana webstie Pel87 section), that contains several sand members - which we obviously now know as Hyrax and Oryx (amongst the other leads). We just don't know what the 'net' of these sand members are in metres.
I think the continual mention of bluewater/ocean current winnowing is good, and perhaps could leave us with better recoverability ratios (but this is speculation). As you've used .3 as your recovery factor, I think this is completely fair, and comparable to all the data I can find (https://geoconvention.com/wp-content/uploads/abstracts/2025/114789-exploring-in-namibia-and-south-africa-fo) - in this doc, venus is described by Namcor as having in-place resource of 5B, with 2B recoverable - so a 40% recoverability factor.
I do also like the comment on the recent Pancon announcement that "Importantly scope exists for multiple prospect/leads to be targeted by a single well - for example at Oryx/Calypso/Addax Channel, and exploration success at any of the defined prospects/leads is likely to result in an uplifted GCoS for subsequent exploration targets". It sounds to me they have more work to do from an analysis perspective.
In saying all of this - typically any decisions by operators are made on the low side numbers (in my experience) - our numbers while decent in all regards, don't scream 'this is a monster!'...at least on the data we've got, where we still have considerable ambiquity. I'm in agreement that for a 'cashed up' major or supermajor, a few drills is worth the risk.
At this point, given all the great insights from everyone on this forum, I think WoodMac should be paying us!
PCL Price at posting:
0.8¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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