If they want to block the deal they would be vocal about it...

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18/01/23

19:04

Post #: 65759375
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Originally posted by madamswer: ↑

"So MAM now with 16% - can decide which way it goes?"

Given the way the Scheme is structured, I think its going to be difficult for MAM with 16%, to prevent the Scheme proceeding.

And buying more shares in an attempt to stop the Scheme is a difficult thing to justify to your clients when you know that the stock prices is going to tank if you are successful; meaning you are currently buying shares with the express knowledge that they are going to be worth less if you are successful in the objective for which you are buying those very shares.

So it's a vexing situation for the Investment Manager.

Viewed another way, from MAM's point of view:

There is a lot of downside in buying shares today if, in doing so, you are able to prevent the takeover happening, but there is no downside in buying shares today, if you are simply going to vote in favour of the takeover at the last minute because no interloper has appeared.

So over the past day or two, I've change my interpretation of what's happening here: I think MAM are accumulating stock as a free option on a bidding war occurring (sure, slim chance at this late stage, but not absolutely zero chance, so that option has some value, albeit small) plus a 3%-4% certain gain over a few weeks if the takeover goes ahead (and remember that MAM itself is highly influential in making it go ahead if they want to bank that 3%-4% gain).

In other words, instead of MAM building a blockingstake, I now see MAM building a stake to facilitatethe takeover.

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If they want to block the deal they would be vocal about it trying to rally support for their move. This would mean they would not have to buy stock to vote against the deal and lose on it. They are prob buying now to make a bit extra… expect it to trade up soon once the nervous selling subsided.

MSL Price at posting: 28.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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