My call is that MAM blink and accept the offer.
Because if they don't, and the Scheme doesn't proceed because of it, then the stock price falls by 30%.
And given MSL represents a full 10% of MAM's core Microcap Value Fund (see below, from their December 2022 report), this will mean an instant 300bp hit to the fund's investment returns.
And, as can be seen, the fund hasn't had a good performance run in recent times, so the last think I'd imagine MAM want, after a lousy 2022, is to start 2023 with a 300bp performance handicap.
View attachment 4984165I'm basing this call on little more than the above ferreting around that I did, combined with the way I think I understand human nature.
But I could be wrong and MAM might do something truly ballsy and cop the investment pain, but 80% probability in my mind that they take the cash.
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