5GG 2.33% 4.2¢ pentanet limited

Firstly as I have gone back and fact checked all above, I...

  1. 308 Posts.
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    Firstly as I have gone back and fact checked all above, I believe I am WRONG and owe a different user an apology as well.

    It appears the expenditure for Geforce now was actually for 36 servers which cost $12 million, not the $5 million I used in calculations. So I retract my numbers completely and yes, I believe they do look a bit more daunting now.

    I am still going to use the timeframe of 12 months from now because lets keep things consistent however this will be more of a test. (12 months is far too short of a time period to expect this much capital to be regained from a NEW product, but see what we get).

    12,000,000/12 = $1,000,000 p/month
    1,000,000/20 = 50,000
    Assume 50% of revenue is covering costs? I believe that is an appropriate rough estimate? Who knows? Only Pentanet for now.

    So, assuming the above is fair, we basically need ALL 100,000 current active users to convert to paying $20 a month to cover the capital expenditure and ongoing costs make Geforce now profitable in 12 months.

    Now, that seems VERY high. However, I believe Pentanet's previous announcements reported 6 MILLION active Geforce now users worldwide (Google says 12 million so who knows), which makes 100,000 seem far less formidable. This is also calculating the numbers to have complete return on investment and immediate profitability of $6 million a year, following the 12 months, which is a bit unfair to be asking for considering its new technology to the country. This is likely NOT the numbers or goal Pentanet has set itself, 12 months is not long. If you allow a longer time frame, obviously the monthly required users will be less. Now, I am simply throwing numbers around, in no way am I saying this is a true reflection.

    You also have to be aware of the fact that there does appear to be quite significant positive growth in active users. You may argue that this is because the product is pretty much free at the moment, but again, to me that's a positive. EXPOSURE EXPOSURE EXPOSURE. I would rather have 100,000 active users at this point, with say, 7,000 paying, than 10,000 users ALL paying, for now. People focused on balance sheets etc would obviously disagree, but for me, active users is increasing and we will capitalize on that later this year. You also need to look at the figure given of Australia which highlights the fact we have exposure to the entirety of Australia for this product, not just limited to Perth. The target and potential audience is HUGE. So to have an initial target of 100,000 paying users to me, is not completely far fetched. It may seem that way for now, and there are plenty of doubters thats for sure. But I am happy to give the opposite side of the story because personally, I believe it.

    As long as the trend is our friend in terms of increasing the active user base for Geforce now, I am comfortable. Fortnite mobile could be the key here. There are videos on YouTube of OCE players RAVING about how good this product and service is, each with 10,000-100,000+ views. The word is spreading...

    I believe with the introduction of a mid tier plan a VERY high percentage will convert from free users to paying users. I have no statistics to back that up, its just the way I look at the product. Right place right time right service. Only time will tell though. I'm happy to wait (for now).

    Agree to disagree on the threat of the NBN. Ill wait and see. I think my point is fair, when they're listing off suburbs and they're each listed twice, that makes the list look far more significant than it actually is. To be honest I was excited to look at the list, but none of the 3 suburbs I have lived in recently are on the list. You also have to actively ask for it and be in the right suburb and you'll be told "yes we will get back to you and complete the upgrades this year if you meet all the criteria" when you can just have a dish installed on your roof by pentanet the next day and have the same results. Again, I think this is something that we will just have to agree to disagree on. Time will tell.

    Also, I had a look at the 5G offering from Optus and entered my last 3 residential addresses in Perth and its not available at any of the addresses I entered. Keep in mind all 3 addresses were within 15 minutes of the Perth CBD, I'm not looking at this unreasonably putting in places from whoop whoop.

    The development of the gaming AI platform is the Canopus AI as far as I am aware, so they already have $1.5 Million from their investment that is to be used in that regard. I wouldnt say the two are overly related for the time being until we here more detailed plans for the AI.

    So, I happily admit my figures were wrong and thanks for making me challenge my own ideas. This is what its all about.

    Goodluck

 
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