Undeniably a great business, but little the market does not now know. Can't help feel QBE fairly priced now. Good business and good dividend yield, but capital appreciation from here likely limited.
QBE is jointly the largest insurer of mortgages in Australia.
Australian credit default swap rates have risen dramatically in 2022 in percentage terms, but in my opinion are not reflective of coming economic hardship amongst homeowners (nor QBE's share price), many of whom come off fixed mortgages in 2023:
Australia 5 Years CDS: 35.25 - that suggests the market is pricing a 0.59% implied probability of default, presuming a 40% recovery rate.
The basis of much of QBE's modelled forward risk a little on the light side IMO, but what do I know....
QBE Price at posting:
$12.62 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
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