I am extremely happy that Pernatty is now off the table (it was a real long-shot anyway IMVHO). This will now allow all investors to focus their attentions entirely on Vulcan North, which IMVHO is the main game.
Owing to its very well-known shared geology with Olympic Dam, as well as TAS's prior very important and excellent drilling results at Vulcan North (particularly VUD015), I believe that Vulcan North has terrific chances of success.
There is of course also the huge bonus of having FMG managing the drilling at Vulcan North, and indeed managing the complete exploration and development program for the total duration of the Vulcan Project JV.
With regard to the current drilling at Vulcan North by FMG, you said "50% better grade". From which previous hole were you referring?
By my reckoning, Vulcan North measures 2.5 kms from north to south and 750 meters from east to west. Therefore, it is a large area. As a result, if FMG can get at least a 200 meter interval of copper, at an average of over 1% at VUD018 (where they are currently drilling at Vulcan North), this would be an excellent result, and TAS could very well be "off to the races".
With regard to the actual location of VUD018, I believe that it is being drilled very close but slightly to the west of TAS's previous VUD015 hole.
Therefore, IMVHO, the following assay results from VUD015, which were received by TAS in August 2013, are probably the most relevant to us all at the moment:
- 145 meters of copper at an average of 0.49% - 52 meters of copper at an average of 0.87% - 21 meters of copper at an average of 1.69%
Based on the above figures, TAS already found a very impressive and confirmed 218 meters of copper at an average of .70% at Vulcan North (between 1,110 meters to 1,378 meters in depth). Having said this, TAS only drilled VUD015 to a depth of 1,378 meters.
Considering that at VUD015 the mineralisation/basement only began at 905 meters, and TAS only drilled to a depth of 1,378 meters, the total mineralisation/basement interval that was drilled and cored was only a mere 473 meters in length.
Most importantly, the deeper TAS drilled at VUD015, the higher the average grade of copper mineralisation there was i.e. at 1,191 meters deep there were 145 metres of copper at an average of only 0.49%. However, at 1,284 meters deep there were 52 meters of copper at a far better average of 0.87%. Finally, at 1,310 metres deep, there were 21 meters of copper at a very high average of 1.69%. To further reinforce this crucial and very positive trend, in TAS's August 2013 VUD015 assay results announcement, GS made the following statement:
"The highest grade mineralisation however, is probably remobilised and occurs within the upper portion of a mafic dyke (Figure 4) which was intersected from 1310 to 1343m. Several one metre assays over 4% Cu are included in this interval."
Here is a link to the entire VUD015 assay results etc. which were contained in TAS's announcement from August 15th, 2013:
Thus, on the basis of TAS's existing assay results from VUD015, as well as from GS's very revealing aforementioned statement, it would appear that if TAS had drilled another ca. 700 meters deeper at VUD015, the deeper they would have drilled, the higher the average grades of copper mineralisation there would have been (a major hot spot?).
The only questions that remain unanswered for me are 1. what would have been the total length and the corresponding grades of each copper mineralisation core interval?, and 2. at what depth did the copper mineralisation acually end? i.e. how deep is the entire basement at Vulcan North? (I reckon it is very deep).
In order to answer both of the above questions, I am assuming that VUD018 is being drilled very near VUD015 and that FMG will continue to drill VUD018 until the mineralisation/basement ends (quite possibly at least 2,000 metres deep). This of course could be the reason why drilling is taking so long at Vulcan North.
It goes with saying, that if assay results from VUD018 were to reveal a total interval of ca. 1,000 metres of copper mineralisation, at just over 1% (average), this would be a very impressive result.
Finally, at the end TAS's VUD015 assays announcement from August 2013, GS made the following statement:
"The intersection of mineralised, highly favourable host rocks in VUD 15, coupled with the encouraging results in the nearby drill holes, in particular VUD 3 and 8 has substantially enhanced the prospectivity of this northern section of the Vulcan gravity target."
On the basis of this statement, it is therefore little wonder that FMG chose to drill their first two holes in "this northern section of the Vulcan gravity target" i.e. Vulcan North.
It also little wonder than in today's "Pernatty " announcement, GS made the following comment:
"Tasman eagerly awaits the results from drilling by Fortescue at the Vulcan prospect, 40km north of Olypmic Dam, which is still in progress."
(20min delay)