These IRR for these types of projects is super sensitive to the pog. Look at Table 6 on pg 10 of the Ann - PRU have modelled the NPV using a US$2,100 price, but at $2,700 the pre-tax IRR increases from 25.6% to 44.9%. Or in
NPV terms, it more than doubles from $US404M to $1,010M, and that's still $500 short of what the prevailing pog is today.
So whether by design or not, it's a stress test of the financial model under the scenario that the pog undergoes a cataclysmic implosion and drops by 30-35% to see if the project is still viable. I'm not going to speculate on where the pog is heading, but we can see the project generates a healthy margin even under the most pessimistic of scenarios. Even if pog corrects by 5-10%, the cashflows are impressive.
Agree that Tanzania are no doubt negotiating a hard position, but imo the upside still justifes the investment decision, so I'm broadly supportive. The Orecorp feasibility study now more than likely obsolete, and I dare say PRU will probably have to revisit their final pit design again as well. Orecorp NPV probably looked superficially better based on higher grade, but less recovered oz and smaller LOM cashflow. PRU choosing the volume approach (bigger mill) meaning we can mine to a lower cog. The deposit looks more amenable to this approach.
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Ann: Perseus Proceeds with Development of Nyanzaga Gold Project, page-9
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Mkt cap ! $4.590B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$3.39 | $3.40 | $3.32 | $21.65M | 6.444M |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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3 | 47879 | 3.340 |
4 | 83136 | 3.330 |
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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3.370 | 34597 | 1 |
3.380 | 33521 | 2 |
3.390 | 41729 | 2 |
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3.410 | 38329 | 1 |
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