ICG

9.09%

0.5¢ inca minerals limited

Thanks colgm thats a bloody great post, very much appreciate you...

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Kiwiboy00

2,464 Posts.

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26/03/21

15:08

Post #: 52068982
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Originally posted by colgm: ↑

Geez inviting my conservative side here Kiwi - can’t do a one or two liner on this!!

Firstly investor experience shows that an in-ground sale often falls short of shareholder expectations, in particular in a country with a variety of social problems. However, like property development you have to leave something solid on the table for the next guy in. Not inviting arguments, dispute or conjecture with other holders, but blue sky speculation is rarely the reality.

If Riqueza is drilled and proven as a Tier 1 deposit then an absolute minimum value in-situ say $400m - and pitching my worst case here. That is 10x where we are today. The company management would be thinking a number considerably greater, suspect double this number. You only get what someone is prepared to pay & a bigger number is dependent on a number of bidders being in the race. You would think the well documented commodity shortages, hunger for copper territory, and lack of exploration capex last few years etc would invite material global players to bid if this proven as Tier 1.

CAVEATS: There is an element of sovereign risk at play In Peru which is more front of mind then in the past.. Not all so rosy over there with several Presidents/Leaders in power since just last November!! So an element of instability outside of Covid issues plus reported unrest in a struggling economy. There is an election process in the mix currently amidst past corruption in governments. Not great when explores, and production mining companies alike require certainty. Just stating an honest view. It is also a fact.

JOINT VENTURE: cannot see a JV deal going forward. Board pretty much expressed this as unlikely in past. I think it is a Drill Prove & Sale in-situ exercise. Board super conscious of rewarding long term investors and all investors but LTH’s have taken more than a leap of faith over the years. Interminable otherwise. Board wants a United shareholder base going forward on other INCA prospects.

FUTURE VALUE: So I am taking a middle ground position (pardon the pun) & say $600m value for proven Tier1. Full assessment won’t be completed in 9 months (pre Xmas 2021) as we haven’t started drilling yet. Assuming Great interim drill results in the 6-7 months to December, then I expect a steady SP share price increase to say 50c level initially, and by Xmas 2021.

AIMO & all based on SUCCESS.

like I said Kiwi, my conservative bias in play, read plenty of material from historic data / announcements over past 5 years plus, had personal dialogue along the way with management, and attendance at Shareholder forums etc -

Understated view, but making overestimations misleads the impatient or those that have not retained data from past releases and DD for some is not a practise.

cheers to all.

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Thanks colgm thats a bloody great post, very much appreciate you taking the time to write it. PS- It's a very levelheaded post and well thought out.

Cheers
Kiwi

ICG Price at posting: 9.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Last 0.5¢		Change -0.001(9.09%)		Mkt cap ! $5.133M

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