Fike, Both I and TShirts' ref to Dan's writing, posted similar such comments because we discussed this, as you hypothesized, in the Q&A and post-AGM discussions with the exec'.
My post (after release of the Martin Place Securities report) went something like this (15th Jun 2017):
.... this in-house report is pretty well what was said at the AGM a month ago, ... And Tshirt is right; it is well and truly the most info written down and provided for all to see.
Some SH will be unhappy with the timeline that PSA have provided over the past.... I know it has stumped me. I would often asked about the trucking contract - the "install ... ...when it seem PSA wanted production to start ASAP etc. They “had” said it was necessary at the EGM 1st Dec 2016.... All within reason, but not easily understandable with what PSA provided.
....
…. Let me focus on some pertinent points in the report that I believe will clear up most of PSA uncertainty for SH. (Though who knows what will be delivered when?)
In this report is the MENA todo list and top two are the development plan and the $60m cost recovery items. Both items relate to government actions. However I learnt that both the Houthi government (2014-on when buying Block 7) and the Hadi government when buying Block S-1) [have I got that right?] are to be considered. It's normal BAU within the oil industry for cost recovery and some work needs to be done with the Hadi Ministry of Oil... to have this box ticked. The development plan will set out sureties for the Hadi Government to use for probable revenues and costs from the actions under such a plan etc... and again needs to be considered for the box to be ticked. PSA do need to maximise the profit equation but you can see from the Production Sharing Agreement reported with Cost oil and Profit oil both at 50%. And I know the Hadi Gov wants oil revenue but hey no Minister of Oil and Gas will lose out if they don't sign just YET!
How should we proceed if politics (and not war) is the friction? We just don’t know if PSA is jumping through hoops or steadily getting these boxes ticked. And Fike and Rubs, trucking is lower down the list and is nothing to do with the timeline's eventual production startup. By any thought it should be done well before the other items. In essence Trucking is necessary but not sufficient in setting the timeline. ..... end.
The "necessary but not sufficient" is often used in academic circles (hence my label Uni~).
In MENA, politics (and not war) is indeed the friction. At the AGM Terry was quite open about the way forward with specific focus on how the business should negotiate the terrain. In this case go "quietly forward with goals set in place and achieve them." What is highlighted in the Qtrly is the need to dot i's etc and ensure long term positions are forthcoming ~ hence the need for the development plan I mentioned (please see post again).
Taken with Dan's post and the recent reports (Martin Place Securities report and Qtrly2), I would suggest the only messaging we are missing is what's happening with the war. I hope this helps
BTW the best news coming apart from the start of Hummer with a further drill or two in the next 12 months may be the $US gas prices. GLTA
PSA Price at posting:
13.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held