Ann: Phase 2 trial shows significant improvements in Pitt Hopkins, page-82

I found it particularly interesting to hear JP reference Reata and also Soleno during the session.

I was/am under the impression that as a treatment for Friedreich’s Ataxia, Skyclaris (Reata) has a similar profile to Trofinetide (Acadia/Neuren) in the treatment of Retts syndrome in terms of patient populations and drug pricing (to a lesser degree from memory). For the purposes of comparison, I will equate them as equal and a good valuation guide.

In most Neuren presentations, 2591 in the 4 indications we are trialling is valued at approximately 5 times that of Retts. When you consider that Reata was sold for $7.2B USD, it shows what considerable potential we have for the indications we are trailing. I know the goalposts have somewhat shifted on PWS but I still think they intend to trial 2591 in it once they revise the protocol. I know that Pharma M&A does not work like this but 5 x $7.2b USD gives us a very, very healthy valuation ($36B USD / $54B AUD). With circa 130m shares on issue gives us an SP of $410. If nothing else, it does give a clear line of sight of just some of the value of 2591.

The truly remarkable thing to consider are the "platform indications" that JP referenced much more explicitly today. He has mentioned up to 100 indications previously and while I don't think we will be rewarded for each and every one individually in the event of a TO, if you have mouse models that back up your claim, you could comfortably argue that a premium, based on even just 5 additional indications (leaving 95% on the table for big pharma) is more than fair, given the safety and efficacy profile.

Such valuation would see the valuation more than double and that does not include any additional revenue in Fragile X or ongoing revenue for Daybue etc.

I stand by my view that $15B USD is a fair TO valuation right now . Anything less and we are giving it away.

Notwithstanding SP action today, I can see a scenario where $22B USD is the sweet spot and makes all parties happy especially considering the Soleno/Reata valuations for single indications.