my modelling is available in a long HC thread called "overwhelming efficacy: the stats required". The unknown in the blinded trial that makes any kind of conclusion impossible is that we don't know how many of the control arm have passed away as SOC has improved since the 12 person trial.
saying "if there was gonna be a result we would know by now" is wrong because even if the same result is achived (75% survival in treated arm) there's a lot of other factors to achieve overwhelming efficacy.
so got any stats or evidence to back up what you're saying? or is it just what 'dyareckon'?
happy to be proven wrong if you have evidence.
Ann: Phase 3 Trial in COVID-19 ARDS Surpasses 50% Enrollment, page-249
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