Ann: Phase 3 Trial in COVID-19 ARDS Surpasses 50% Enrollment, page-360

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dealmein

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27/10/20

13:06

Post #: 48419149
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Originally posted by bedger: ↑

Despite the US move, the stock price is getting a bit of a joke now. We are on the verge of another Bayesian read out on COVID-19 ARDS. ARDS the afflication that is seen in 90% of COVID-19 deaths and Doctors around the world are still struggling against. Struggling against and risking their own lives in treating - if you are an 'attending' expert you are probably in a high risk age category yourself.

The capital markets really are a joke that a stock that is possibly on the verge of providing the only respite to deaths in a pandemic that has bought the world to a standstill is trading 54% of its peak only 3 weeks ago. It does show you the sheer exuberance and panic that characterises capital mkts now. I sold into the pre-ODAC exuberance and bought back on the FDA notes panic. Didn't call the FDA going against a positive ODAC vote for the first time in history, so didn't sell in alas, but am certainly buying in here.

If the NIH/FDA/MSB are using an informative prior in the Bayesian statistical analysis this trial could well be stopped early November (if treatment success similar to compassionate use results). If using an uninformative prior and the trial results similar to compassionate results, early December. Either way if you believe in the science of REM-L, come December, and mortality in the palcebo group is >50% and <15% in the treatment group, you will have a trial that will be stopped early for efficacy, by nature of the Bayesian design - the more data that confirms the prior, be it uninformative or informative, the more likely the statistical argument for early trial stopping than conventional frequentist statistics. This is a lot to do witth the increasing popularity of Bayesian statistics, particularly when you have prior data. Its just a question of how much emphasis was put on the prior compassionate use data. I think SI and FG's keeness to reiterate the high rates of mortality they continue to see in severe cases without treatment might be signal that the prior will be confirmed by emerging data and the trial stopped early.

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Then you add the possible readout from the heart trial due within next week or two, and gee these prices could be bargain basement

MSB Price at posting: $3.05 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Ann: Phase 3 Trial in COVID-19 ARDS Surpasses 50% Enrollment, page-360

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